As Americans cast their votes in the 2024 presidential election, all eyes are on the narrow race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The polls indicate one of the closest contests in modern American political history, with both candidates locked in a virtual tie across critical swing states. Neither Harris nor Trump has a significant lead in enough states to secure the 270 electoral votes required for victory, making the race exceptionally uncertain.
Follow live updates on The Guardian to track real-time results, insights from political analysts, and updates on which candidate is inching closer to victory.
Key Swing States in Play
Much of the attention is focused on seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states, which played pivotal roles in recent elections, are once again at the forefront. Polling averages show Harris leading by less than 1% in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump holds a slim lead in Arizona. The margins are so close that minor shifts in voter turnout or last-minute decisions could tip the scale in either direction.
National Polls: A Statistical Tie
Nationally, Harris holds a razor-thin edge in polling averages, with recent surveys placing her around 49%, narrowly ahead of Trump. However, some polls show Trump leading among likely voters, especially in key regions where he historically outperformed expectations. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Harris with a mere 0.1% lead, and FiveThirtyEight places her advantage at just 1.2%. These slim margins indicate a near deadlock, making it plausible that the national popular vote could end as close as it did in 2000 or even closer.
Analyzing the Electoral College Paths
The Electoral College map reveals that both candidates can count on certain strongholds for around 200 electoral votes each. This leaves both needing several swing states to push them past the finish line. Here are a few possible scenarios:
If Polls Miss in Trump’s Favor: Trump could repeat his 2016 pattern, where he outperformed polls, especially in swing states. In such a case, Trump could sweep Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, along with Pennsylvania, giving him a clear path to the presidency.
If Polls Miss in Harris’s Favor: Harris, who has shown strong support in Michigan and Wisconsin, could potentially secure Pennsylvania, flipping the blue wall back to the Democrats. This would likely grant her a comfortable margin in the Electoral College, even if Trump performs well in the South.
Demographic Shifts and Late Surges
While Harris maintains strong support among Democratic-leaning groups, her lead among Latino voters has decreased compared to previous Democratic candidates. An NBC News/Telemundo poll indicated that while Harris is ahead with Latino voters, her margin is smaller than what Biden or Clinton achieved in their runs. Conversely, enthusiasm among Democratic voters has surged since Harris entered the race, with Democratic engagement nearly doubling since mid-year.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to dominate among white working-class voters and has made significant inroads with certain minority groups, potentially offsetting some of Harris’s support among traditional Democratic demographics.
The Race: A Nail-Biter Until the Very End
With seven battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, showing razor-thin margins, the path to victory is as close as it gets. National polls suggest a near tie, and in pivotal states like Pennsylvania, the vote could swing in either direction. Polls in North Carolina and Nevada favour Trump by less than 1%, while Harris holds the slightest lead in Wisconsin and Michigan. Every vote counts, and each update could signal the turning point in this battle.
Paths to Victory: Who Will Reach 270 First?
To win, both Harris and Trump will need more than just their party’s loyal bases. Harris leads by a hair in some Midwest states, while Trump holds an advantage in the Sunbelt. Our real-time electoral map shows the possible paths to the White House for each candidate based on every state’s incoming results.
Swing States to Watch Closely
With polls closing soon in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona, we could see quick shifts in the projected path for each candidate. Watch live as results from these battlegrounds start rolling in. Even the smallest polling error in favour of either candidate could impact the outcome. Click here for live swing state results and expert analysis.
Will the Polls Be Right?
In the last two elections, polling has missed the mark, with Trump outpacing his poll numbers in key regions. If he follows that pattern today, he could secure another term. Conversely, if Harris outperforms polls like Democrats did in 2022, she may capture swing states that have leaned red in recent years.
What to Watch as Votes Are Counted
Today’s results hinge on several critical factors:
Swing State Results: Early returns from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona will give an early indication of how the race may unfold.
Polling Accuracy: Historically, polls have underestimated Trump’s support, particularly in 2016 and 2020. If this trend continues, Trump may perform better than predicted in several states.
Late-Deciding Voters: With 16% of registered voters still undecided as of the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll, last-minute choices could make the difference in a tightly contested race.
The 2024 election underscores a deep divide in the U.S., with Americans making their voices heard on the direction they want for the future. As the votes are counted, one thing is clear: this election will likely be remembered as one of the closest—and most consequential—in recent history.
Stay tuned for live updates throughout the night—this historic race is one you won’t want to miss. Watch live on The Guardian.
